From the bottle to a table centrepiece and fine dining, from habit to custom, from the historical drink of the Old Continent to a symbol of the global lifestyle, which will continue to grow but essentially away from home. Wine in the world has changed and will change even more so over the next five years.
A second life for the main asset in Italian agro-food exports (exports were worth almost 6 billion euros in 2017) that producers will have to cultivate in vineyards as well as on markets, through marketing and across the digital prairies. This is the scenario outlined by the Outlook “The future of markets, the markets of the future” by Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor developed for the 52nd edition of the show.
And in this context, the role of buyer countries will also change inexorably, with the geography of consumption increasingly focused outside the borders of Europe. China and Russia, followed by the United States, as well as the East, are all ready to increase their orders (including Italian wines), thanks to expansion of per capita GDP that in China is expected to grow by as much as 10.6%.
The study began by analysing the last 10 years in order to predict how consumption will evolve over the next 5 and thereby especially understand those who ‘deal the cards’ among producer countries in such a massive market, which for wine-makers alone is worth about 31 billion euro/year in exports. The picture that emerged is partly comforting and at the same time somewhat alarming for Italy. On the one hand, wine is a driving force in Italy and has become increasingly popular over the last
10 years, with a growth trend in value (+69%) double that of France, as well as leadership in 16 countries (yet France leads in 29 countries); on the other hand, there is a huge gap as regards markets of the future, in the southern hemisphere (plus China) where the Italian share of sales rarely or never reaches double figures.
The future of the Italian wine-ecosystem: export forecasts through to 2022 Germany and the United Kingdom will be stationary, where the average age and Brexit have a negative impact; Japan is growing
slightly thanks to the imminent free-trade agreement; further increases for China, Russia and the United States (in this order) as the real players in growing consumption thanks to a number of decisive market factors: expansion of the upper class (up to 25% of the population in Russia), urbanization rates (set to reach 63% in China) and significant increases in per capita GDP. The wineecosystem over the next 5 years as investigated by Vinitaly-Nomisma Wine Monitor posts a positive picture of trends in sales
value, albeit with lower increases compared to the recent past in the top six world markets (64% of the overall value of Italian exports).
Italy presents overall variations in line with general demand for wine and the 5-year forecast suggests an average growth rate of 0.5% per year in Germany and 1% in the United Kingdom (values slightly below the market). The situation is better in Japan, where the sales trend should grow in the order of 2% per year – and even more so in the main market for Italian wine – the USA – with an expected improvement of around 4.5% per year and hypothetical average growth through to 2022 of 22.5%.
Lastly, the top two markets with the highest growth rates see Russia resume strongly after the Rouble crisis (+27.5%) and China, which is expected to improve by around 38.5%.
The forecast developed by Nomisma Wine Monitor for wine consumption and imports over the next five years was developed by implementing a complex model that includes data and qualitative information (consumer insights and stakeholder consultations) and quantitative data (economic and socio-demographic variables) based on statistical sources (public and private) and literature